The Democratic National Committee is convinced there’s a possibility that President Donald Trump will either resign prior to serving out his first term, or be challenged by another Republican in 2020.
According to The Hill, Politico reported on Tuesday that the DNC is anticipating runs from Republicans such as U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Ben Sasse (Neb.) and Vice President Pence.
According to the report, a team of two dozen researchers is tasked with filing Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests in multiple states around the country in an effort to build background opposition research against the Republicans, none of whom have declared their intent to run.
Among other things, the team is searching for possible conflicts of interest, financial issues, and video clips that portray chummy relationships with Trump.
In a statement to Politico, the DNC confirmed the report, stating it was ready for “all scenarios.”
There is, of course, no evidence whatsoever to suppose that Trump has any plans on resigning. Even if it were something he wanted to do, it’s doubtful his ego would allow it.
The best proxy we have to measure the likelihood that Trump will resign prior to 2020 or be challenged by another Republican is to look at the betting odds. While anything is possible, those putting their money where they mouths are currently implying that 2018 is the year Trump would resign, if he were to do so. Overall, the odds are roughly 50/50.
Meanwhile, look at the odds for the 2020 presidential race and you’ll notice a lack of Republican challenges, with Vice President Mike Pence as the only other Republican with a chance of winning the presidency. It’s more likely that Trump would resign and have Pence run in his place, than another Republican would challenge Trump for the candidacy, it would appear.
As for the Democrat challenges, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris are the most likely to run against Trump. Former professional wrestler Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson was listed as the fourth most-likely non-Republican to run against Trump.
Place your bets, folks.