Slipping AGAIN

Yesterday, Donald Trump delivered what some have called his “last stand” speech in Gettysburg, PA. Not for one second did it sound like someone defeated or disheartened. Trump delivered his plans for his first day in office, and his first 100 days, and in measured tones, delivered blow after blow to Hillary Clinton’s corrupt machine.

While Hillary seems to be campaigning as if she’s already won – and maybe she does know how the story will end, since her camp is busy rigging the votes – the polls say it ain’t over.

The Real Clear Politics average shows Clinton with a 5.9 point lead, but it’s down over the last two days, and we haven’t seen the full effects (if any) of Trump’s speech.

The USC/LA Times “Daybreak” poll shows Hillary and Trump in a dead heat and today, the IBD/TIPP shows Trump with a two point lead. says, With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson saw his support held steady at 7%, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein dipped to 3%.

Unrounded, Trump leads 42.6% to 40.8% — a 1.8-point edge — with Johnson at 7.2% and Stein at 3.3%.

Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.

The IBD/TIPP poll results continue to show a much closer race than most other nationwide polls. Only the Rasmussen poll shows Trump ahead in a four-way contest (by two points).

It bears noting that in the United Kingdom the polls completely misjudged voter sentiment over the “Brexit” vote.

IBD reports, Anyone who is certain that the presidential polls taken today are solid evidence of a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump in November might want to take a look at what happened in the U.K.’s “Brexit” vote just a few months ago.

In the week before voters decided whether Britain should leave the European Union, all but two of nine polls showed the “remain” side winning. One gave the remain side a 10-point lead, 55% to 45%. Others had remain up anywhere from eight to two points. Even exit polls suggested that the U.K. would decide to stay in the EU.

Final tally: leave 52%, remain 48%.

The results left pollsters, and many others, scratching their heads. “Many are wondering how, in an age of unprecedented information and data, could the majority of polls predict a wrong outcome,” is how CNBC put it.

The results left pollsters, and many others, scratching their heads. “Many are wondering how, in an age of unprecedented information and data, could the majority of polls predict a wrong outcome,” is how CNBC put it.

So how did those polls — particularly on Brexit — get the outcomes so wrong, and could this election be as difficult to gauge accurately?

On average, Clinton now holds a lead over Trump of 6.7 points, up from a less than one-point lead a month ago. Even the Los Angeles Times’ tracking poll, which had Trump up by several points since mid-September, now shows the race tied. (IBD/TIPP’s tracking poll starts Oct. 20.)

But could there be a hidden majority for Trump that pollsters aren’t catching, just as there was a hidden majority of U.K. voters who wanted to leave the EU?

“The dynamics of the 2016 election bear some resemblance to the situation in Britain during the Brexit referendum,” said Ragavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which runs the IBD/TIPP poll. “In both the Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential campaign, a surge in populist sentiment has occurred within each electorate. As the British people felt that they were not benefiting from their nation’s membership in the European Union, everyday Americans, who do not feel that the economy is working for them, are frustrated by the impact of trade deals on jobs and the economy. Immigration is another shared concern among voters in Britain and the U.S.”

Mayur also noted that in the case of Brexit, the voter turnout models used in most polls underestimated certain demographic groups, such as non-graduates and working-class Brits, that would end up voting en masse to leave the EU.

“Typically, pollsters use proprietary ‘likely voter’ models to predict who will and won’t show up at the polls,” he said. “However, as the Brexit vote has demonstrated, ensuring the correct likely voter model has its challenges.”

That’s especially true in this presidential race. Mayur notes that Clinton’s and Trump’s historically high negatives make it more difficult to predict who will actually cast a ballot.

What’s more, as with Brexit, some people might not want to tell pollsters what they really think. “Trump supporters might have been cautious to report their preference given the derision directed towards them by some elites in the media and elsewhere,” Mayur said.

So, are we headed for a “Trexit” here in the U.S.? Fingers crossed…

[Note: This article was written by Michele Hickford]


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