Back in January it was reported that Hillary’s national lead among Democrat candidates had fallen at a faster rate than in 2008. While she’s still on track to become the Democrat nominee, she now has another set of polls to worry about: how she fares against Trump.
During the Republican primary many candidates attacked Trump’s legitimacy as a candidate based on the fact that polls showed him losing by double digits in a hypothetical head-to-head against Hillary. As the Republican field has consolidated to one, Trump’s support has only increased. That can’t be said of Democrats, whose unofficially-named “Never Hillary” crowd (about 30 percent of Sanders supporters) still refuses to back her.
May proved to be a bad month for Hillary when the Real Clear Politics average of major polls showed Trump beating her for the first time on record. The numbers have changed since then, but still remain within the margin of error. Even the Huffington Post is admitting: the polls for Hillary aren’t looking pretty.
Her lead over Donald Trump has shrunk to the low single digits. State polls tell a similar story: Clinton and Trump have run neck and neck in two separate polls in each of four key electoral battlegrounds. Clinton’s favorable ratings — currently 41 percent favorable and 55 percent unfavorable, according to HuffPost Pollster — are virtually unchanged over the past month. But that was before the release of the inspector general’s report, which said Clinton didn’t comply with department policies when she used a private email account for government business and didn’t immediately turn over records of her correspondence.
The HuffPo also notes that an overwhelming majority of Americans find her untrustworthy (and who said people don’t pay attention to politics?)
One of the particular issues where there’s unanimous agreement is regarding her email scandal. (which people apparently aren’t sick of hearing about, Bernie). Only 20 percent of voters believed her practice was ethical. Among all voters, 48 percent view the emails as a ‘major problem,’ while 24 percent see it as a minor problem. Just 18 percent of voters said it was no problem at all.
Likewise, Democrats hate Hillary more than Republicans hate Trump. Trump is, in fact, pulling in 11 percent of Democrats to Clinton’s 8 percent of Republicans, but that only 3 percent of Democrats are undecided, while 7 percent of Republicans haven’t made up their minds.
Even Democrat pollster Doug Schoen is openly suggesting “it is easier now than ever to imagine a scenario in which Hillary Clinton — whether by dint of legal or political circumstances — is not the Democratic presidential nominee.”
It’s obviously too soon to make a call, but if Hillary isn’t biting her nails, she isn’t paying attention.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]