Politicians, pundits and the media seem to live and die by polls. But are they meaningful? Pollsters have agendas too, and how questions are asked can affect the results.
A NY1/Baruch College poll released Monday night has some crazy results for Donald Trump.
NY1 says, Running in his home state, Trump is supported by 60 percent of likely Republican voters, the poll found. Ohio Gov. John Kasich and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas trail far behind with 17 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
That puts Trump a massive 43 points ahead.
“Trump is just killing it,” said Baruch College pollster Mickey Blum.
Trump’s support in the April 19 primary is widespread, the poll found.
“Every demographic group goes for him,” said Baruch College pollster Doug Muzzio. “Every geographic group, every socio-economic group. And with large majorities. Cruz ain’t doing it. And Kasich ain’t doing it.”
It means Trump is in a position to possibly sweep all 95 delegates up for grabs. To do that, he must win at least 50 percent of the primary vote in every one of New York’s 27 congressional districts. Otherwise, the top finisher in a district wins two delegates and the runner-up gets one.
But here’s why polls are so crazy.
The very same poll says “nearly 60 percent of state voters have an unfavorable view of Trump.”
Now, it’s no secret New York leans strongly to the left, about 49 percent Democrat to 24 percent Republican, with the remaining 27 percent or so being Independent or something else.
But the poll doesn’t specify if only Democrats and Republicans were polled. So let’s assume for a moment that’s the case.
In order to get to the 60 percent unfavorable for state voters, he’d need to be despised by all the Democrats and about half of the Republicans. But according to the poll, 60 percent of the Republicans are supporting him.
Can you ‘splain this to me? Does New York have a love-hate relationship with Trump? Or are the pollsters trying to push a Trump candidacy because…
In a general election, Clinton or Sanders beat Trump in New York. Our poll found Clinton winning 51 percent to 35 percent. Sanders would trounce Trump even more decisively: 54 percent to 32 percent.
One other interesting thing the poll found is Trump’s supporters are also loyal. If he fails to become the Republican nominee, a majority say they want him to run for president as a third-party candidate.
It’s going to be an interesting few months until Cleveland, that’s for sure.
[Note: This article was written by Michele Hickford]