While Donald Trump continues to defy original expectations in the GOP primary process — now just 498 delegates from the 1,237 to win the nomination outright — two new polls released today suggest trouble ahead in the general election, should he become the nominee. Separate polls released by Fox News and Bloomberg Politics suggest a Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton would handily beat Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
Meanwhile, the polls show a mixed bag for a Ted Cruz vs. Hillary Clinton matchup, while John Kasich bests Clinton in both polls.
Via Fox News:
Republicans are eager to win back the White House in 2016. A new Fox News national poll finds both John Kasich and Ted Cruz ahead of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in hypothetical matchups, while Donald Trump trails her.
Kasich does best against Clinton. He has a double-digit advantage and also comes in above the 50 percent mark: 51 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.
Cruz is preferred over Clinton by three percentage points (47-44 percent).
Clinton tops GOP front-runner Donald Trump by 11 points (49-38 percent).
A separate poll released earlier by Bloomberg Politics shows Clinton leading Trump 54 percent to 36 percent in a head-to-head contest, while she leads Cruz 51 to 42 percent. In the Bloomberg poll, only Kasich bests Clinton in a hypothetical match-up.
Back to the Fox News poll…
The Ohio governor’s advantage comes mostly from independents; they support him over Clinton by 36 points. Plus, Kasich steals the largest number of Democrats (17 percent).
Kasich and Cruz also outperform Trump against Bernie Sanders. The Democrat leads Trump by 14 points — and tops Cruz by a narrower four-point margin. Kasich has a one-point edge over Sanders (44-43 percent).
While Trump and his supporters argue his base extends beyond party lines, the results of these two polls suggest otherwise. However, Trump rightly points out that he hasn’t yet fully turned his ammo to campaigning against Hillary Clinton.
On that front, interesting to note Trump and Clinton are a pretty tight matchup on one particular front:
The two current front-runners are also battling for the worst honesty ratings: 64 percent of voters say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, while 65 percent feel that way about Trump.
When you consider the liberal media attacks on Trump, while they do everything in their power to prop up Clinton, you have to be amazed Clinton isn’t further ahead on that front.
Perhaps one of the more surprising aspects of the the Fox poll is how competitive Cruz is in the head-to-head against Clinton, when many have argued he “can’t win” in the general. And the poll shows a Cruz win would inspire the most enthusiasm amongst Republicans.
More Republicans would feel “enthusiastic” or “pleased” with a Cruz win (57 percent), than with a Kasich (48 percent) or Trump (51 percent) victory.
While we all have a healthy skepticism about polls at this point, many of them have proven to be pretty good indicators of this primary process thus far when it comes to predicting Trump’s primary wins. And when it comes to the general election, these two polls seem to mirror less favorable trends about the Donald in other head-to-head matchups.
What say y’all?
[Note: This article was written by Michelle Jesse, Associate Editor]