There are lots of political machinations going on with the GOP presidential primary. Word is that former Florida Governor and presidential candidate Jeb Bush will be meeting with remaining candidates Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich. We know Neil Bush is a Cruz campaign finance committeeman. And after what can only be referred to as poor performances this past Tuesday, I surmise there are growing behind-the-scenes calls for Rubio and Kasich to exit. Man, there are probably some serious “Godfather”-type discussions going on.
Here’s what’s at risk. If Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich remain in this contest and end up losing next week Tuesday in their respective states — very probable –to Donald Trump, he walks away in those winner take-all-primaries. What that means is Trump gains an even bigger delegate lead which will be even more monumental to overcome.
Now, Rubio and Kasich will respond to the calls to drop out by saying, we got this” but that’s a gamble some aren’t willing to take. What I find very interesting is — as we recently shared — the real losers in this whole episode are the GOP elites and their special interest crony capitalists who benefit from fiascos like the Export-Import Bank and bailouts. The GOP elite have truly found themselves in the predicament of being between the devil and the deep blue sea — and it appears they’re going to choose the deep blue sea.
The GOP elites have decided they’re going to do what the conservative base has had to do quite often for them: hold their nose and choose. And it seems in this contest, they’ve chosen Texas Senator Ted Cruz over Donald J. Trump. Look for Cruz (the guy about whom Lindsay Graham once quipped if he was shot on the Senate floor no one would be convicted) to start racking up endorsements from all over the place. Ted Cruz will come to find he all of a sudden has lots of new friends — and he’ll need to demonstrate he won’t abandon his core conservative principles and values, lest he loses the base that’s gotten him there. In the end, the GOP elite has come to realize that this is indeed the election cycle of the “outsider.”
But the question remains, is there enough horsepower to force Rubio and Kasich out before next Tuesday — heck, before tonight’s debate? What’s at stake for Rubio and Kasich is their political future. I do find it unconscionable that anyone believes Marco Rubio could be the governor of Florida. Anyone who knows Florida politics knows that position is reserved for one Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, a favored son of Florida. If not Putnam, then it will be the Florida Chief Financial Officer, Jeff Atwater — his grandfather was Napoleon Broward, yeah, Broward County, Florida-kinda Broward. Rubio would be committing political suicide if he runs next Tuesday and loses; politically he has no future. As for John Kasich, he finished third in Michigan, a state he seriously needed to win, but did not, and he even lost some of the Michigan counties adjacent to northwest Ohio. Kasich sits with 54 delegates; if he loses the contest in Ohio, not only does he exit the presidential primary on a negative note — his status as Ohio governor will be adversely affected.
Yesterday the surprise endorsement of Carly Fiorina for Ted Cruz means one “outsider” presidential candidates has joined with another. And in full disclosure, I did max out a campaign contribution to Ms. Fiorina, and no one can debate she was one if not THE most articulate and informed candidate, able to respond to inquiry with policy solutions.
My assessment is we might just be seeing what will be the eventual GOP ticket: Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina. Y’all can attack me for saying so, but that’s my assessment of the politics behind all of this. Here’s what the Democrat Party will present as a ticket — barring Hillary enduing up in an orange jumpsuit — Hillary Clinton and Julian Castro. Now’s not the time for the GOP to run some same as usual ticket. And also, a Hillary Clinton presidential candidacy will be all about victims — blacks and women. Castro will come in and try to victimize and whip up fear among Hispanics. It will not be possible for a Clinton-Castro ticket to run on the record and accomplishments of the Obama administration, so it will revert back to the same tired old liberal progressive socialist message. And if Hillary Clinton doesn’t overcome her investigation, then once again, expect the ticket that Barack Obama really wants: Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.
Look, I will support whomever the GOP nominee ends up being, because the alternative is unacceptable. But knowing politics, there are actions in place and Senator Ted Cruz has done what he needed to do at this point, chalk up wins, especially his home state, and build an effective organization. I will offer a little piece of advice to the Senator from the state that has adopted me, Texas: improve your image and make yourself more likable, appealing and genuine. I wish I could thoroughly explain the fleeing of evangelical Christians from Cruz to Trump, but my belief is that Christians find strength in Trump.
There will be much going on before we get to next Tuesday’s contests in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and North Carolina. Stay tuned as this continues to be a very interesting and somewhat unpredictable presidential election cycle.