The rise of Ben Carson was impressive, but couldn’t have been more brief. After maintaining a lead over Donald Trump until late June, Trump began to surge ahead of the other candidates, having yet to lose market share as his lead grows.
The Republican underdogs have all left the race, and among the main candidates, we’ve lost Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush. The exit of low-polling candidates has the potential to give a much needed boost to the main three contenders in the election: Trump, Cruz, and Rubio.
So who’s going to be next to drop out?
Carson finished January with just over $4 million cash on hand. But if his campaign continues spending at its current rate and doesn’t substantially increase its fundraising, it will be running on little more than fumes by the end of this month.
During the month of January, Carson’s campaign spent $6.2 million and raised $3.8 million.
By contrast, when Carson surging last year, the retired neurosurgeon raised $3.5 million in just the first week of September. He has raised $57 million to date — more hard dollars than any of his GOP rivals.
But while Carson briefly led the polls late last year, he has slipped dramatically after a series of foreign policy missteps and staffing overhauls.
Many have speculated that Carson is staying in the race to take the evangelical vote away from Cruz, in hopes of scoring an appointment to the position of Surgeon General under a Trump administration. Regardless of his motives for remaining in the race, he may be forced out now.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist]