The results of the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries couldn’t have been more different.
Ted Cruz came out on top at Iowa, though many declared Marco Rubio as the winner after he unexpectedly placed third after Trump. Those gambling on the primary dumped Trump, with betting odds determining Rubio as the likely nominee following Iowa.
The winner of the Iowa caucus rarely wins the nomination, and Trump didn’t remain a loser for long.
Trump dominated New Hampshire, garnering nearly as many votes as the next three candidates combined. The betting odds now show Trump nearly twice as likely to win the nomination as Rubio.
But after all the brouhaha of Kasich coming in second and Carson tanking in New Hampshire…really very little has changed.
The polls still show steady and increasing support for Donald Trump, as Breitbart reports:
Morning Consult released its latest national poll Friday, and the news is all good for Donald Trump, whose support jumped from 38% last week to 44% support today. That puts The Donald a full +27 points ahead of second place
Fair enough, but when you drill down you find New Hampshire barely made a dent on the rankings.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) , who enjoys 17% support, which is exactly where he sat last week.
Ben Carson and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are tied for 3rd place at 10%.
Carson jumped just +1 point since last week.
Rubio, however, lost -5 points — a third of his support.
Jeb Bush jumped from 6% to 8%. John Kasich doubled his support from 2% to 4%.
The Real Clear Politics poll of national polls does not show anything this dramatic. Trump is in first place over Cruz but only by +9 points. It is worth noting, though, that the newest national poll in this average is more than a week old.
After the Iowa caucus an old Tweet from Donald Trump surfaced where he said “No one remembers who came in second.” For the first time he should be relieved that he was wrong.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist]