Trump angered many people during the first Republican debate when he wouldn’t rule out the possibility of running as an independent if he were not to get the nomination. And due to Trump’s considerable following, many reasonably feared a repeat of the 1992 election, where the center-right independent Ross Perot took votes that would’ve otherwise gone to the elder Bush, costing him the election.
But a new poll from USA Today shows that this probably wouldn’t be the case if Trump ran as a third party:
Trump is ranked first in the GOP field in a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, and 68 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump even if he ran as an Independent.
As for how Trump would race in a head to head against Clinton, Clinton leads by four percentage points, but this is within the poll’s margin of error.
On the other hand, this poll could be interpreted another way: that Trump will secure the nomination.No matter what.
If Trump were to garner 68 percent of Republican support as an independent, he’s in no risk of failing to secure the Republican nomination, so there’s no reason he would ever need to run as an independent.
Polls have been increasingly showing support for the GOP as a whole. While there was a 7 percentage point gap between those leaning Democrat and Republican earlier this year, the gap has been closed for the most part since August.
This will not be good news for the DC establishment.
[Note: This article was written by The Analytical Economist]